Worried About a Housing Crash? Here’s What the Data Actually Says.

I hear some version of this all the time:

“Should we wait until things settle down?”

It’s a fair question. Between interest rates, inflation, the economy, and everything else happening right now, a lot of buyers and sellers have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the housing market to feel more predictable.

But here’s the interesting part:

When it comes to housing, a lot of that settling down has already happened.

The market isn’t back to 2020 or 2021 conditions — and I don’t think buyers or sellers should be waiting for it to be.

Instead, we’re starting to see something much less dramatic: a market that has adjusted to a new normal.

Home Prices Have Leveled Out

After the huge price increases we saw earlier in the decade, national home-price growth has become considerably less dramatic.

Data from the National Association of Realtors shows that home prices have been relatively steady over the past several years.

And that’s largely what economists expect going forward.

Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at Cotality, recently said:

"In 2026, we expect home prices to remain broadly stable, with modest appreciation at a national level."

That’s important.

A healthy housing market doesn’t require prices to jump 10–15% every year. In fact, slower and more predictable appreciation can make it easier for both buyers and sellers to make decisions.

And remember: national averages don’t tell the entire story.

Greater Boston is an extremely local market. What’s happening with inventory and pricing in one town — or even one neighborhood — can look very different from another.

Inventory Has Started To Stabilize

Inventory was one of the biggest stories coming out of the pandemic.

There simply weren’t enough homes for sale.

Over the past few years, inventory has gradually improved nationally, and now that growth is beginning to level off. Realtor.com data shows the number of homes available for sale is getting much closer to where it was at this point last year.

For buyers, more predictable inventory makes it easier to understand what your options may look like.

For sellers, it gives us a better idea of how much competition your home is likely to face.

But this is another area where local data matters much more than a national headline.

A buyer searching in Greater Boston can still encounter multiple offers and limited inventory in one town while having significantly more negotiating power somewhere else.

Mortgage Rates Have Found a Range

This may be the biggest adjustment buyers have had to make.

Mortgage rates increased dramatically in 2022, but since then they’ve spent much of their time in roughly the 6–7% range.

At this point, buyers and sellers have had several years to adjust.

That’s very different from a market where everyone is waiting for rates to suddenly return to 3%.

Could rates move up or down? Absolutely.

But trying to perfectly time interest rates, home prices and inventory is incredibly difficult.

For most people, the better question isn’t:

“Is this the perfect housing market?”

It’s:

“Does buying or selling make sense for me in the market we actually have?”

So, Is a Housing Crash Coming?

There are always economic risks, and real estate is never completely predictable.

But the current housing market doesn’t look like one that’s simply waiting for everything to collapse.

Prices have become more stable nationally. Inventory has improved. Mortgage rates have spent several years within a relatively consistent range.

In other words, the market has been adjusting.

And here in Greater Boston, the bigger story continues to be how dramatically conditions can vary from town to town.

If you’ve been waiting for the housing market to finally “settle down,” it may be worth looking at what’s actually happening in the specific market where you want to buy or sell.

Because the national headline is only the beginning of the story.